Fine, fine, let's talk about the election.

After more than a decade working in politics, there’s some questions that come up every cycle. First let’s start with the obvious:

Noah, who do you think will win this year?

I don’t have a clue - neither does anyone.

Here’s an XmR chart I made as an experiment. Bear in mind that these are only national polls, and so actually don’t mean much based on our electoral college system. The two numbers below matter more. The two vertical bands are notable moments - the first is when Kamala was officially nominated, the second was the DNC. Of note, the very low survey (33.8) landed directly after Trump was shot. I banded it out because it was an anomaly.

The short version of this is that we don’t know.

The betting markets seem a little more clear, but not much. Manifold Markets is my current favorite prediction market, and they have Trump as slightly ahead. This is a small market and can be swayed by big bets either way.

FiveThirtyEight has it at 52/48 - so there’s probably some arbitrage available based on whether you have more confidence in the betting markets or in the polls. I’m not smart enough to figure that out.

Ok, why are so many people voting for [Trump/Harris], I just can’t imagine it.

Trump:
Emotional/Psychological/Cultural Reasons
Feeling of lost identity
Rejection of elitism
Desire for strong leadership
Anti-establishment sentiment
Identification with ‘survivor’ archetype
Nostalgia
Reinforcement of in-group identity
Perceived safety from external threats
Desire for clear, unfiltered communication

Policy Reasons
Belief in his foreign policy
Support for conservative judiciary appointments
Strong stance on immigration
Alignment with approach to business/taxes
Belief in “America First” foreign policy
Support rural communities on agricultural issues
Support strong national defense budget
Distrust of current policies
Influence from conservative media
Backlash against political correctness

Harris
Emotional/Psychological/Cultural Reasons
Hope for inclusive representation
Belief in social progress/Cultural shift toward the future
Faith in compassionate leadership style
Trust in systemic reform
Support for groundbreaking/historic leadership breakthroughs
Support for a cooperative international discourse
Value thoughtful discourse in general

Policy Reasons
Desire for a progressive vision on social issues
Focus on equity and justice reforms
Support for healthcare expansion
Advocating for climate action
The desire for diverse representation in leadership
Support for women’s reproductive rights
Emphasis on diplomacy
Representation for younger voters and minority groups
Focus on science and public health in policy decisions
Backing from social justice movement

The Outsized Role of Gender

Most elections are change vs. more-of-the-same. This election is a choice between more-of-the-same and more-of-the-same. If you feel particularly frustrated by it, that’s probably why.

Instead, it seems like this election has become about a choice between ARCHETYPES of masculine and feminine power. It is NOT a choice between masculinity and femininity - I want to make that abundantly clear.

Examining archetypal masculine and feminine energies through the lenses of myth, philosophy, and psychology reveals how these energies complement and challenge one another. It might be overkill to suggest that they’re embodied in public figures like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but I think it’s at least gesturing at the truth.

At its core, masculine power often centers on assertion, protection, and independence. It finds expression in traits like strength, assertiveness, and an outward focus on conquering, competing, or defending.

Feminine power, on the other hand, is traditionally linked to compassion and connectivity. It emphasizes intuition and the cultivation of relationships and environments. It fosters power through interconnectedness and shared growth.

Harris and Trump can be seen as embodiments of the anima and animus in societal consciousness, with Harris representing qualities aligned with the Anima—empathy, cooperation, inclusivity—and Trump reflecting elements of the unrestrained Animus, embodying dominance, competition, and assertive self-expression.

Together, they reveal a tension within society: the struggle between these two energies not as diametrically opposed forces, but as complementary. In Taoist philosophy, Yin and Yang represent complementary, interdependent forces. Yin embodies qualities associated with femininity: fluidity, receptivity, and nurturing. Yang, embodying masculinity, is characterized by activity, assertion, and linear movement. Together, they describe a balanced whole, each containing a seed of the other.

On a cultural level, this election challenges us to reckon with our collective values. Will we prioritize cooperation, shared accountability, and empathy, or do we still long for the kind of solitary heroism that comes with bold, uncompromising strength?

Voters may find themselves voting not simply for a candidate, but for the expression of values they wish to see reinforced in society.

Win or lose, if I were in charge of all the Democrats, I’d do a few things differently….

1. Start talking about faith again - not as a talking point, but as a core part of your message. JD Vance, love him or hate him, does this really well. Dems have wholesale abandoned voters of faith.

2. Stop flirting with socialism and communism. It’s not popular, it doesn’t work, and it only hurts America.

3. Stop falling into social justice traps set by the GOP. Don’t rush to defend every single issue on CNN, they’re doing this on purpose. “Defund the police” is a trap. So is transgender people competing in high school sports.

4. Start talking to men again. Start after this election - right now the division is working, but it won’t in the long term.

5. Rally the union base. We’re going to see a shocking number of union members, especially building and trades members, go for Trump this cycle. We’ve given up too much ground there.

6. This is such a cliche I’m embarrassed to even write it, but remember how to speak to people who don’t have a Masters’ degree. Get out of DC, out of NYC, and start listening to the way your voters really talk.

7. Segmenting by identity is now a VERY old and outdated idea in political technology. Especially - stop assuming all black and brown people will vote for you. It’s patronizing and very wrong. Identity politics is not a long-term successful issue. Advertisers now have the ability to treat and target every voter as an individual. Let’s actually do that.

8. Nobody cares about the nuances. Stop trying to sound smart, stop being a nanny state telling people what to do, and start supporting individual excellence and responsibility.

9. Stop flirting with tough on crime. It’s not popular and it’s not cute. Americans have shed the myth that the war on drugs made us safer. Time for a new story of safety.

10. Start focusing on fentanyl, on mental health, on middle class and small business policies, on a return to decency. Those are all winning issues.

There’s more, but that’s a start.

So what’s your point?

No point really. Just some observations. Good luck out there. And remember, fear is never of God. Neither is greed. Most political discussions are motivated by one of those two things. Whatever happens next, we’ll be ok.

Love you,
Noah