Will Joe Biden Win?
People have been asking me whether Joe Biden will win, as if I have any more insight than the rest of the world.
If I knew, I’d drive to Vegas right now and bet the house.
But you keep asking me, so here’s some insider-y stuff to consider.
Allan Lichtman says Biden Wins. Allan is the equivalent of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”, but for politics. More importantly, he’s never been wrong about a presidential prediction. His theory is that campaigns largely cancel each other out, and voters end up deciding the president based on 13 Keys to the White House (he modeled his theory on earthquake prediction, it’s actually pretty interesting).
GOP voter suppression is the real variable. It doesn’t take long to find a million articles about this.
Good news: Swing voters love Biden.
Bad news: Core dems (especially Hispanic/Latino voters) don’t give a rat’s ass about him. Or, in the parlance of my profession, there’s an “enthusiasm gap”.
Good news: Trump’s embarrassing COVID-19 response has hurt his chances significantly, especially when we make an economic argument.
Bad news: Trump is running on a law and order platform. That messaging works well for him.
The betting markets have Biden ahead, 57-44 as of the time I’m sending this.
The Russians are involved and want Trump to win. The evidence for this is staggering. Of course the US has certainly influenced foreign elections, and it’s naive to think that foreign actors aren’t meddling in ours. The difference this time is the Republican Party’s allegedly active cooperation. Pay attention to the news stories coming out about corruption within the NRA, that seems like it was a useful vehicle for Russian influence.
All of the numbers are in Biden’s favor, but not by a wide enough margin to overcome the voter suppression efforts. It’s anyone’s game.